Machap: Malaysians in general disappointed…

“The residents have yet to feel the pains of the urban and semi-urban brethren resulting from paying higher toll fees, higher petrol prices, etc.  Wait until this BN put a toll right in the middle of their village and they will then come howling.  They have made the bed and they must now lie on it.”- Billy (blogger)

This is a comment from blogger Billy in my blog. I believe many Malaysians share his sentiment and felt the same way too.

That’s because many Malaysians outside of Machap, especially those living in the urban and semi-urban areas, were hoping that the Machap people would vote against the racist, heartless and arrogant BN. But they have forgotten that Machap is indeed a BN’s stronghold. And the way BN handles its by-elections in Machap was blatantly crude if you know what I mean.  Yes, the entire race was  marred by lies, violence, intimidation and vote-buying in line with Islam Hadhari.

But I hope every Malaysian would take note that there was an increase of votes (slightly more than 2% of the total votes) to the opposition. This is not insignificant in a BN stronghold like Machap. DAP gotten only 18% of the votes in 2004. It now obtains 20%. DAP did quite well in Machap Baru, registering an increase of some 15% votes (from 21.89% to 36.57%). I was hoping to get 50% of the votes here before the polling day.

Pls take note that Ali Rustam was talking about sweeping the deposit from the DAP before the race. “Lori Gostan” must have thought that to re-tar the entire road system in Machap Baru and Machap Umboo (Kg Permai), lining the road from Machap Baru to Machap Umboo with 900 street lights, building a recreational park over a week and forking out hard cash besides making pledges after pledges (from land for the farmers and land to the dead ones, relocation of transmission towers, tenure of land rights extended to 99 years ONLY IF BN won the seat ) to buy votes would have “sapu” our deposit.

The partnership between DAP and PKR must have contributed to this significant “moral victory” for the opposition.

Let us not despair with this result. We should see the light, take the cue and work hard (very, very hard) to create the right conditions for greater opposition unity. The opposition leaders MUST not ignore the need to work together. And the people must also play a part in achieving the much-needed unity.

Political analyst Wong Chin Huat has an analysis…

投票趋势几乎纹风不动
在野党败在金钱与机器
■日期/Apr 13, 2007   ■时间/07:31:38 pm
■新闻/家国风云   ■作者/本刊特约黄进发
           

【本刊特约黄进发撰述】如果真如行动党竞选主轴所言,“马来西亚民主,从马接开始”,那么这个不好的开始,是不是意味着来届大选国阵独大局面被打开缺口的民主远景,已经垮了一半?除了马接巴鲁新村,马接选区其他七个投票站的投票趋势几乎原封不动。提名日国阵助选人员暴力伤人的丑闻、马华公会行动党互相挑战辩论的闹剧、年轻人推动公共辩论的创举,安华要副首相纳吉交代蒙古女郎被杀、军购回佣等议题的挑战,都似乎风过江湖了无痕。

国阵多数票从4562张(62.20%)降至4081张(57.07%),这481张或5个百分点的降幅,几乎是马接巴鲁(净减527张)的翻版,因为其他七区的得失大致上互相抵消。(见图一)行动党在全区净增167选票,其中马接巴鲁便贡献了171张;而国阵在全区净减314张选票,在马接巴鲁即丢了356张。


 

图一,国阵与行动党在各投票站得票变化的比较

以行动党、国阵两党在2004年大选、2007年补选的(有效票)得票率来作比较 (图二),2004年历史2007年重演的印象更加明显。行动党在马接巴鲁新村的支持率从2004年的21.89%窜升至36.57%,涨幅达一成半。另一个华裔大票仓马接翁武,行动党和马华公会得票都减少,但是前者降幅稍大,因此其得票率略降(不到一个百分点)。两个华人大票仓加起来,行动党此次得到37.26%有效票,比上届大选29.35%增加近一成。其他投票站的投票趋势,则三年前后看来变化不大。

图二,国阵与行动党在2004年大选与2007年补选各投票站的有效票得票率

这次补选的成绩对正在为来届大选备战的在野党是一个警钟。虽然之前独立中心民调显示六成的华裔选民和大约三分一的巫印裔选民会支持在野党,马接各族投选在野党的比率显然远远低于如此。

尽管阿都拉政府蜜月期已过,在城市地区甚至民怨深深,为什么在野党仍然不能取得突破? 这可以从五方面去看:投票(polling)舞弊行为、助选(campaign)舞弊行为、竞选机器、政党/候选人、议题。

公民竟为窃国行为欢呼

补选出动幽灵选民的作法,鲁乃是前车之鉴;这一次马接选举是不是也阴阳同行?由于行动党本身没有用电脑软件检验选民册,也没有把选民册交给相关公民组织检验,我们不知道选民册有多干净。从投票率去看,投票日虽然落在工作天,但显然不影响投票率,只有马接巴鲁的投票率低于七成。而三个不足一千选民的投票站中竟有两个(格姆宁与苏鹿猛公)的投票率达到85%左右,颇让人侧目。然而,就算有鬼,其数字也大概不会超过一两百人。

真正不利于在野党的舞弊行为,其实发生在投票之前的各种助选拉票活动中。《1954年选举法令》明文列举宴请选民、贿赂、恐吓等为“舞弊行为”(corrupt practice);但是,马华公会夜夜摆擂茶大会的流水席,甚至国阵候选人赖明忠与希山慕丁、凯里加马鲁丁、廖中莱等公然派食物给选民,即使记者当前也毫无顾忌。投票日当天,连选票也公然收买,无法无天。而选举委员会却像尸位素餐,一如行尸走肉,其执法队(enforcement team)更完全没有作为。

而联邦与州政府更明目张胆公器私用,用国家资源收买选票,甚至连国宝级运动员都要被逼应召作秀。根据《当今大马》的统计,国阵在这个9623选民的州选区,宣布了最少只有共宣布总值超过马币六百万元的拨款。到了投票日前夕,工程局还在漏夜修路!

在一些1990年才民主化的前共产国家,这种滥用国家资源以遂党派利益的行径,都是犯法行为,足以让犯者罚款入狱。而马来西亚独立了50年,却始终没有法律约束这种“窃国”行为,在上位者还有脸夸夸其谈“第一流思维”、“glocal”(编按:副首相纳吉倡议的“放眼国际,脚踏本土”概念,“glocal”是“global”和“local”的合成)云云,而一般公民也没有维护选举中“平坦游戏场地”(level playing field)的认识,就像球迷为作弊球队欢呼一样,实在让人有不知今夕何夕的沉重感慨。

如果说投票与助选的舞弊行为操之在对手,另外三个因素却相当程度取决于在野党:竞选机器、政党/候选人、议题。行动党两周主攻两个华人新村,而一味期望公正党协助争取马来选票;结果,行动党候选人只在前者取得37%选票,其他六个投票站得票更低至11%!这样的成绩,无法不让人质疑行动党的竞选机器,进而思考行动党参选的正当性。公正党上阵是不是一定会更好很难确定,因为该党也无法深入一些巫统强区助选。然而,如果行动党与公正党能够一开始就通力合作,推出重量级候选人,并且决定了哪一党上阵另一党就全力辅选,每个投票站都直捣黄龙,结局肯定不会如眼前地让在野党同情者要互相安慰“节哀顺便”。这一点,请在野党检讨时不要忘记,务必请先自我检讨!

中期选举议题无法奏效

在议题部分,行动党大谈全国性议题,把补选拉高到“中期选举”层次的做法显然并不奏效。然而,面对选民对原任议员的肯定与怀念,打地方议题恐怕更无着力点。我相信,“中期选举”还是最佳应对策略(best response),问题在于选举机器的能力与效率。当然,如果在野党能够进行民调,科学地鉴定选民关心所在,选战自然能够打得更好。

金钱攻势(不管是私人还是国家),以及选举舞弊,已经是这个hadhari国家选举的特色,在野党不能“恃其不来”,而必须“恃我有以待之”。民意基础与选举机器应该成为未来在野党决定政党与候选人出战选区的首要考量。如果争持不下,不管是党内和党外,就以民调决胜负,不要在媒体上互相放话。

是马接“辜负”了行动党对它的期望,还是行动党在马接“辜负”了在野党支持者都好,那一场补选已经尘埃落定,下一场在依约的补选会如何呢?从形势来看确定上阵的公正党能不能不“辜负”马来西亚民主化的浪潮?它会不会吸取行动党的教训?安华离开马接巴鲁时,当地的华裔青少年像欢送天王巨星般拍掌喊“Anwar! Anwar!”,去到马六甲宾达却遇上半冷不热的群众;在依约,前者会不会持续?后者会不会改变?期待马来西亚民主化重获动力的国人,能不能在依约重拾希望? 

9 Responses to “Machap: Malaysians in general disappointed…”

  1. sampalee Says:

    There is no hidden hand.The cheating is in broad daylight and bn make no attempt to hide or apologise.When will the dap learn.When your body is attacked by virus,save your breath reasoning to the virus or appealing to the body to ignore and reject it.Just take the combination of correct medication and the body will be restored to normal.Ai times a single drug will not work and wisdom dictates using a combination or in some cases a cocktail of several.The umno virus is immune to dap or pas drug when use singly.However,whenused in combination,umno is history.Pas leaders are willing and it is now for dap leaders to drop the arrogance of self righteouness and surrender their big ego for the common good of the small rakyat.Do not blame the raktat[body],when the dap drug refused to be used in combination with pas.For the sake of all malaysians and not mere empty rethoric of malaysian malaysia,stop the selfish act and offer the people the medication that is alresdy available,but held back by the few bn mole in dap.

  2. KSTAN Says:

    As predicted, DAP will loose … so why so many people congratulating DAP for just a mere dent of 400 something decrease in BN’s margin. Nothing to shout about. As I’ve said before, DAP can only perform well in urban areas where the Chinese voter makes up about 70% onwards (generally speaking). Furthermore, Machap is BN’s stronghold. But what I expected was that DAP can at least reduce 1,000 votes and not 400 votes to give indication to the BN govt that the Rakyat are not happy. But unfortunately these Machap folks are very cheap and will vote for you if you provide them with some makan, some karaoke entertainment and RM20 ang pow they will most certainly vote for you. At least Kelantanese voters, mainly the pengkalan pasir voters, were given kenduri, hampers, bags of ferterlizers, rice, bicycles (for some the kids), kain batik/ kain pelikat and etc in order to buy their votes. So I guess the Pengkalan pasir voters were smarter to exploit BN as compared to the rural Macap folks. This goes to show that the 5,000 odd voters of Machap are very cheap, and cheap indeed! But to the 1,000 odd who voted for DAP, I salute you guys for making the right decision!

    Okay, let’s focus on Ijok now and hopefully my dear fellow Selongorians are not as naive as those simpleton Machap folks and will do the right thing by voting for the opposition.

    Selongor Boleh! Ijok Boleh!

  3. muhibbah Says:

    I don’t agree with K.S.Tan regarding his statement on the 5000 voters who very cheap. Don’t insult the electorate that might one day vote for DAP. There must something good that MCA has done to touch the Machap voters’ hearts besides the bribery allegations.

    DAP need to establish a stronger presence in this area and continue to highlight the National issues to these village folks not only during any elections but on a periodical basis. Set up a young team to organise more public awareness campaign on National issues.

    The candidata they posted there is just a van salesman and how do you accept the Machap voters to believe in him. How do you expect him to perform if the DAP taikos are forever not there to show their presence. DAP should have put up a more credible candidate there and why didn’t there?

    DAP’s choice of candidtaes is very limited. So start recruiting talents. Head hunt if need to.

  4. LOne Says:

    The voters of Machap have spoken. DAP and PKR should take note. Winning votes does not involve just voicing out national issues, opposition candidates should not be just “parachute candidates”, their presence must be felt on the ground even when it is not election time.

    The opposition should be more cohesive and be like-minded. Claiming to be multiracial and Malaysian Malaysians is just not sufficient. See what is already happening with Ijok, there is already jostling by various interested parties for the candidate to be of this race or the other. Is the opposition really colourblind or is it all talk and “kulity” counts at the end of the day. Opposition parties get your act together or forever remain in opposition.

  5. seaturtle Says:

    really disappointed with the result…. 400 is not enough… Malay voters still can’t accept DAP… must do something.

    Don’t give up all DAP leaders , you have my support…

  6. The Brave will prevail Says:

    As someone that returned home a year ago (yes, Malaysia has always been my home) after almost 30yrs away in the UK, I have felt a great sadness at the state of our country. We seem to have regressed and have not found the path to a truly multi-racial country. We live in parallel worlds. A few have made strides to bridge the gap between races and cultures. However, the many years of racial politics have left its mark.

    Machap demonstrates how opposition politics as we have now will only play into the hands of BN. I am equally in despair at the lack of awareness of the Machap folks of the corrupting forces within BN parties. Yet, I cannot but acknowledge their right to vote as they felt right. Even if they may have sold their votes cheaply.

    To stop the rot and turn the tide, I feel all concern citizens have to continue to speak out for a change at every opportunity. DAP too must review and consider its approach in forming a more cohesive and coordinated strategy with PKR. Their macho display of wishing to oontest their old seats or tendency to shout from the roof top of injustices, corruption and many more such issues are old hymns to most voting public regardless of race. We must and have to find a new song that people will listen.

    It would be wrong of me not to credit the joint opposition efforts in Machap. However, much more need to be done if the rot of past politics is to be halted. For a start, there needs to be more quiet consultation and display of unity. We are already seeing posturing between the opposition parties for Ijok. DAP, PKR and PAS has to change the game. Out fox BN by dogged determination to stay firm in unity of purposes.

    Maybe such changes will not happen whilst the old guards are still having too much influence. Perhaps it’s time for the old guards to make way and let the newer generation take the lead. A planned and sustained campaign to reveal and explain the alternatives for a New Malaysia should be the united opposition’s goal. I am sure there will be many that will contribute to such a campaign. It has to be a joint opposition approach to counter BN’s dirty tricks. I do not imply that there should be a “Barisan Alternatif”. However, it must be a new strategy of cooperation to weaken and counter any dirty tricks BN may pull. It can only be achieved with more openness between the parties. Set aside those old wounds. All them heal. Let the party that can be help the healing do its part. None need be in the same bed where it does not wish to. But tolerate and unit against a greater evil we must.

    Almost retiring, but still optimistic.

  7. muhibbah Says:

    Ronnie, have you ever tried to reach some of us who has posted very positive comments to help DAP to reach greater heights?

  8. Mo Zefeng Says:

    Being an Alor Gajah boy, I was hoping for a DAP victory. Even if it is not victory, the votes should be much higher but it didn’t work out that way. My two cents worth? –

    a) Why field an “outsider”? DAP really do not have any other candidates bred locally? Politics is as much about camaradies as it is about politics. Groom someone locally to take on BN candidates, you have got nothing to lose but everything to gain. Brand loyalty must come with “warranty” period and after sales service too. How could an “outsider” serve the local when they are not even staying there to know their problems? Do you have strategist in DAP? Sad…..

    b) I stand corrected but there was not a whisper about the blatant shoddy corruption about the 2 schools in Johor. If there was anything dear to the Chinese voters, it is Chinese schools and blantant corruptions. If calibred person like Ong Tee Keat can be reprimanded, convince the voters that they would need more oppositions to make sure such incidents could be checked.

    I hope DAP top men will think like lay man, think like lay man and be part of them, irregardless of race. There are as many disgruntled non-Chinese and do give them a voice on your platform.

    Lastly, do groom local people to contest the general next elections. The strong party men can manage from the top but at the frontline, try to get more poster boys and girls (ala Ms Fong et al) and professionals to appeal to younger people.

  9. mob1900 Says:

    The new Barisan Najis MP should be very, very afriad.
    Coz the only time Machap gets any ‘Goodies’ is when their MP kicked the bucket and hence the subsequent events.

    So with my tax money now at Machap, what do I own there now?
    Probably a rock of newly-tarred road.

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